A quick jog through the arctic

I just went for a short run last night, after slacking for a week. I was going to do two miles, but the 20-degree weather cut right through my running pants, so I did a mile. My shins were hurting like hell too.

I feel bad because Lora's been orgnaizing some lakefront runs, but I'm just not in shape for 3 or 4 miles yet. I'll get there though. I need to make it part of my routine again. And soon. My pants are getting snug.

Not folding makes me steam

So I went on a little bit of tilt last night. Funny thing is, it's because I didn't fold.

Here's the hand.

Full Tilt p0ker
$0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Ring Game
6 Players
http://www.legopoker.com/hh

Hero (CO): $67.75
BTN: $52.25
SB: $60.15
BB: $57.15
UTG: $54.35
MP: $48.85

Preflop: 7s 6s ($0.75, 6 players)
UTG folds, MP folds, Hero calls $0.50, BTN folds, SB raises to $2, BB calls $1.50, Hero calls $1.50

I limp here because the BB is the worst player in the history of $50NL. 70/4, called down with middle pair often. I just wanted to take a flop and not swell the pot. Zero chance of stealing the blinds. SB is a TAG 21/14/3.

Flop: 6c 4c 6d ($6, 3 players)
SB bets $2.50, BB calls $2.50, Hero raises to $10.50, SB calls $8, BB folds

Nice flop, and if feels like I've got a big pair on the line.

Turn: 6c 4c 6d [Jh] ($29.5, 2 players)
SB bets $15, Hero calls $15

This doesn't feel like a monster. Looking at it now, I can see he's pricing in draws, but it felt at the time like AA-QQ trying to protect against a draw. I fold a lot of draws here though. Since I'm still feeling good about AA-QQ, I call looking for a river brick and an easy all-in.

River: 6c 4c 6d Jh [Qc] ($59.5, 2 players)
SB bets all in for $32.90, Hero calls.

This bet doesn't make sense. This would be a suicide bet for AA or KK. AK clubs got there, and QQ and JJ hit two outers on me. But I have trips. I call.

He flopped a boat with 44.

I got mad not because I think it's an easy fold. I probably should have shoved the turn. But I got a little steamed because after playing about 1,200 hands of good, steady, thinking poker over two days, i pissed away $36 on the river without even taking the time to think the hand through. I didn't even entertain the notion of folding. Of course I pay off. I have trips!

This is my problem. The thought process here sucked. If I take my time, decide he's the type to overvalue AA, then call and lose, fine. If I shove the turn and he coolers me, fine. Those things don't get to me.

But paying off on the river without thinking just pisses me off to no end. If I think the hand through, I think I find the fold here, and I at least redeem the bad turn call. It's just a hand. It's not priceless. I'll make trips again, and I'll get lots better boards with them too. No need to fall in love here.

That probably sounds weak-tight, and maybe it is, but I think I need to earn calls like this by thinking it through, not just calling because "I have trips."

Anyway, I played well the rest of the night, finished up another couple buyins and have already put back together more than half of what I steamed off last week. I'm getting there, getting a little better every time. The truth is, I've only been focusing on NL for about 3 months, and already I've tripled up $500. And this is with only medicore game selection and a lot of donking off stacks with AK preflop.

Slowly forward.

Folding my way to riches

I haven't wanted to post about this, but last weekend, between a bad live session and a heinous tilt session, I dropped nearly a third of my roll.

Terrible timing too, since games and action are already drying up, but that's not really important.

What is important is I played absolutely horrible in both sessions.

I didn't play horrible because I played bad hands. I was generally playing my regular game. I didn't take any particularly bad beat. I bluffed three times in bad spots, and I called a couple too many bets with one pair.

Mainly though, I lost because I refused to fold and I refused to quit.

These things will change.

Step one is getting my ego out of the way.

So much tilt comes from "I have to win this pot.....fuck I lost it." Removing the I from this game removes a good portion of the emotional swings. All that's left is the cards and your opponents. It's much easier to think clearly in that situation.

For example, I made two bluffs last night. One worked, one didn't. Both were based on reads, both of my hand and his hand. Neither was brilliant and neither was awful, but when I got called, I didn't much care because it was the only move I had, and when I swiped the pot, I didn't pound my chest and call myself the king of poker. I made a correct play, next hand.

Step two, oddly, is to fold more.

One of my problems is playing one-pair too much past the turn. When I get in bad runs, I start calling turn raises with one pair, then either compounding the mistake by calling the river, or folding the river and then getting irritated at my stupid turn call.

I take folding personally in some ways, especially when I'm playing poorly. I want to play hands, I want to win big and get unstuck. I want action.

But folding is where the money comes from.

I folded top pair three times last night. Felt good about it. Capped off the night by check/folding a straight on a really bad board.

I liked it.

Really, it's just about calming down and making more good decisions. Longterm. Always longterm.

Little things

It's the little things.

You're up $200 on the session. The games are tighter than normal, only two tables running. Most people are home, out of the snow and watching the Bears. You're thinking about heading home and doing the same.

But you're on the button. The tight octogenarian in seat one raises to $10. He's got 99+, AQs, AKo. You've got KQo. Easy fold. But it's your button. And you can probably bluff him off on some bad looking flops. So you call.

This is a violation of the second law of no limit poker: Make things easy on yourself.

But you call and so does the BB and the pot is $31 and the flop comes KTTr. The BB checks, the old man in seat one counts out four red chips with his thick, shakey fingers, and you hate yourself as you call. Thank god, the BB mucks.

The turn is a brick, and the old man checks to you. You're a smart person. You were in honors level classes, you got through college in four years, you've succeeded in demanding, fast-paced, decsion-making positions, you can understand concepts like reverse implied odds and calling ranges.

And still you cut off eight redbirds and fire them into the middle.

The old man calls of course.

Why of course? Because when you bet $40 into this ancient rock who stirred himself to raise preflop, he's only calling with AA or AK. Because you're a moron who has violated the third law of no limit holdem: Don't make a bet that only gets called when you're beat.

The river comes an A, he checks and you mercifully check behind. His AK is good.

Your win is now down to $130.

A few hands later, three off the button in a seven-haneded game, you look down and for the first time in four live sessions and see two aces. Finally. You open for $7. But there's action in the Bears game, the table is busy worrying about football and muck with the junk they're usually happy to see a flop with. You take down the blinds.

Christ man, the game is dead. There's no action here. Just leave.

But no.

The very next hand, you're determined to run over these people until you grind back the $70 you dumped on the one-seat. You see 65s utg. Make it $10. The SB, the only other solid player at the table calls.

The flop is AK4r. The SB checks. You bet $20. He peels off four chips while his eyes dart up to the giant plasma across the room.

The turn is a seven, so you pick up a straight draw. He checks. Keep the heat on. Build a pot. Get it in if you hit. $60. He gives you a long look out of the corner of his eyes. You look at his chips, then look away. He doesn't seem to like it, but he calls.

The river is a ten. The sb makes a speech about how he knows he's gonna get called by the big stack bully, but he's gonna bet $100 anyhow. Thank god he did, because you might have bluff-shoved the river.

Your win is down to $40.

Two hours later, you shove in your last $65 with top pair, only to see the two-seat has turned a three-outer. You finally make a good decision and stand up, walk out of the room and take your $300 loss.

Little things.

Loose lips sink chips

The seven seat probably didn't realize he was talking.

"I know what you've got man. I know it."

From three off the button in the ten-seat with KhJh, I had raised the weak-tight limper on my right to $12 in a 1/2NL game. The seven (sb) and eight (bb) seat both called.

The flop came J22, with two spades.

Both blinds checked to me and I led out for $20. I wish I hadn't bet that flop, but I was c-betting too much last night, mostly because it was working.

The seven seat called and the eight folded.

The seven had been getting killed. He was stuck at least four $100 buyins, and as he purchased his most recent stack of 20 redbirds, he ordered his second Heineken. He'd made a lot of strange folds as well, including one where he bet $50 of his remaining $63 on a flop in a raised pot, then folded to a raise.

So I have no idea why he's calling. He may be steaming, he may have a jack, he may think a pair of threes are the nuts.

I made my second mistake of the hand on the turn.

It came a red ten, and when the seven checked again and took a pull off of his Heineken, I bet $35. I instantly wished I'd made it $50 or just checked behind.

At this point, the seven starts counting down a stack of red. He'd doubled through someones aces with a set and had about $200 at the start of the hand, covering me by $10.

As he's counting out $75 red chips, he starts talking to himself, almost absentmindedly, the way my mom used to sing Motown songs while washing the dishes.

While he decides how much to raise, I run through the hands that beat me--A2, AJ and JT, and maybe TT. That's it. But that's a lot.

When he puts out his $75 chips, he commits himself to the pot. If he's bluffing, he's drawing nearly dead--three outs to an overcard most likely, though he could have a flush draw with a ten for ~13. I don't really beat anything except QJ.

But why would he say he knew he had me beat?

I'd been c-betting a lot. There was a growing suspicion amongst my tablemates that I was full of shit (they were right). If he really had a strong hand, he wouldn't care what I have. He'd bet his deuces or boat and hope I had aces and couldn't fold. If he thought I had an overpair, he might know that JT is no good here.

So he thinks I'm full of shit.

His hand has barely had time to go from his chips to his beer bottle when I shove for about $75 more.

He calls. He flips T8o.

He says, "I've got you. I've got a ten. AK no good."

I show him my jack.

He didn't tip the waitress when she brought his third beer of the night.

Tilt, and recovering from tilt

I had a wild night while playing poker with the pros. It started as an average, slightly down night. I got outdrawn once, whiffed a few flops, The usual. Nothing crushing, down about a buyin. Then, I found a beautiful seat next to a 55/35/4 with $350 in front of him, and a delightful habit of weak-leading whenever he whiffed, and potting when he had a piece.

At least, that's what I thought. So fucking sick...

Full Tilt Poker
$0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em Ring Game
6 Players
http://www.legopoker.com/hh

MP: $82.75
CO: $382.85
Hero (BTN): $173.05
SB: $104.3
BB: $149.1
UTG: $107.75

Preflop: 2h 2c ($1.5, 6 players)
UTG folds, MP folds, CO raises to $3.50, Hero calls $3.50, SB folds, BB folds

Flop: 2d 7d 8d ($8.5, 2 players)
CO bets $1, Hero raises to $11.50, CO calls $10.50

Turn: 2d 7d 8d [4s] ($31.5, 2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $26, CO calls $26

River: 2d 7d 8d 4s [6s] ($83.5, 2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $43, CO raises all in to $341.85, Hero calls all in for $89.05
Uncalled bet of $209.80 returned to CO

Showdown
CO had Ad Jd (a flush, Ace high) and won $344.60
Hero had 2h 2c (three of a kind, Twos)
Final Pot: $344.60 ($3.00 rake)

Now, there's no way I should be betting this river. I can see that now. At the time, I'm thinking he's on a scared overpair w/ a diamond, and I get paid off, plus he's more aggro on the river than on the flop, so he's a big bluffer. The problem is, my hand just isn't worth $130 on the river. Just check it and carry on.

Of course, I didn't.

The tilt came a few moments later on another table....

Full Tilt Poker
$0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em Ring Game
6 Players
http://www.legopoker.com/hh

Hero (BB): $110.75
UTG: $24
MP: $92
CO: $100
BTN: $99.70
SB: $132.35

Preflop: 6h 8c ($1.5, 6 players)
UTG folds, MP folds, CO calls $1, BTN calls $1, SB folds, Hero checks

Flop: 2c 5s 8s ($3.5, 3 players)
Hero bets $3, CO raises to $12, BTN folds, Hero calls $9

Turn: 2c 5s 8s [3s] ($27.5, 2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $18, Hero raises all in to $98.75, CO calls all in for $69
Uncalled bet of $11.75 returned to Hero

River: 2c 5s 8s 3s [Jc] ($201.5, 2 players)
No action

Showdown
Hero had 6h 8c (a pair of Eights)
CO had 7s 9s (a flush, Nine high) and won $198.50
Final Pot: $198.50 ($3.00 rake)

I am an idiot.

I make another stupid semibluff into a calling station five minutes later, and I'm stuck about $500, feeling kind of numb. I was doing some laundry, so I went to get clothes out of the dryer, and apparently the cold air smacked some sense into me. An hour and a half later, I logged off stuck just about exactly $50. $450 in ninety minutes.

Here's what that looked like:


A couple of things I thought about, looking over the night.

First is that jesus christ are things thin. 80% of the time, my set is good or the board pairs and I've got the near nuts and take down a good % of the fish's stack, plus have $250-ish and the best seat at the table. After I rebought, I ended up taking down another $50 at the table anyhow. That's easily a $300 swing from one hand.

You can probably toss in another $100 of the $150 I steamed off. But then maybe I don't play for another hour and a half. Maybe I book a $100-$150 win and go read or something.

That's a huge difference in an entire evening, and something I probably haven't fully appreciated until now. Giving away a stack like that isn't just about the $130, but the ripple effect for the next hour or so.

It was also just a stupid play.

I'm also noticing a pattern to my down sessions. I've generally started sessions off being a little bluffier, then switching to a value-betting approach, then once I've got a firm grip on my reads, mixing it up player-by-player.

This seems a backwards. Next few sessions, I'm going to try out playing tight and value-bet early, then mix in some bluffs. The obvious advantage is that I keep my stack intact/grow it enough early to be able to cover a few bluffs. Honestly, I'm not sure what I was thinking, but I'm almost positive it's why I've seen a lot of sessions at $50 and $100 where I would start out down a buy-in or two, then come flying back in the second half to break even, or book a few small wins. Occasionally, I'll hit big early or the bluffs will work, but going tight--->lag seems much more sensible. Honestly, I don't know what the fuck I was thinking.

By the way, $187 is a new high for most money lost on one hand. A few things that could have bought me:

*Paid my cable and cellphone for the month
*At least two dinners+good bottles of wine at Cafe Ba Ba Re Ba
*At least nine books at Borders
*One month closer to paying my car off

But playing a big pot against a guy begging me to take his chips: Priceless.

So now what

Good times? Maybe.

So from the post below, I guess I can count myself a $100NL player now, though things can always change quickly. Even if I stick, I'm not really satisfied yet.

Looking back over the last three months of 2006, I saw these improvements in my poker life:

*Finally developed an understanding of NL, and started to improve.

In the past, when I'd try NL, I'd basically take my limit game, play aggro in position, value bet hard, and usually run up a good number, then crash back down to zero or negative when I'd overplay overpairs/draws/bluffs. I feel like starting in November, I finally began to get a sense of NL as a completely seperate game from limit, and now I'm building to tools to develop a complete game.

*Accepted that poker is part of my life, an not something to hide.

Aside from the +1 guys, no one I know gambles. My folks go to Vegas for the restaurants and the shows. My dad talks about dropping $25 at blackjack like it's money. Most of my friends either don't understand, "tut-tut" and think of it as a vice, or don't care. I was talking to Stretch's wife about cards a bit over the summer and she asked me how much I'd won since my first deposit, and after I gave her a number, she asked "But how much have you lost." Ugh.

Bronwyn has been really great for this though. On our first date, she told me her grandmother was a lifelong poker player, and even though B doesn't play, she completely understands that it's a semi-important part of my life. At least once or twice a week she'll say "Lets stay in. Play poker." Having someone like that has helped me be comfortable that I'm not just some junkie sitting in my apartment swapping money with other junkies. Ok, I probably am, but the delusion helps.

*Separated poker money from my money
This is partly a work in progress, but I'm getting close to making it a reality. I set up an online savings account and hooked it into my Neteller account, so that all withdrawls and deposits go through that, and not my checking account. Poker is still my emergency fund, though that's close to changing as well. I'm fine with using it for emergencies though. What would be great is to be able to use it for occasional expenses, and not miss the money so much.

What does that mean?

I'm not really sure. I'm not sure it's worth even dwelling on the money at this point. Do I think if I can turn $500 into $2000 in three months, I can turn $2000 into $8000 in the next three? Maybe.

Maybe if I continue to get better, I can do it even faster though. The money isn't the point. It's a great reward, and something to be handled with care. What's more interesting to me is gaining skill.

I don't want to be one of those old guys, sitting around a 3/6 omaha table, breaking even or losing a little bit, griding out a hobby. I want to get good. I want to get very good. If online poker goes bust this summer, I want to be a regular in the bigger games around town--$300 or $500NL, maybe even get back to the 10/20 or 20/40 limit games at Resorts.

What I don't want to do is stand still. I spent most of last year dicking around in games I was overrolled for, or withdrawing too big a % of my winnings and never seeing any benefits from it.

I think it's time to take this shit seriously, not just as a game and a hobby, but as something that takes up a good portion of my time and my thought. I need to let poker have some value, and I need to spend more time getting value out of poker. With that in mind, a few leaks I still need to plug:

*Game selection
I game select only mediocre. Last Sunday, I played nearly 700 hands in $50NL games where a table vpip of 30 was good. Playoff games and the Sunday Majors just killed action. I didn't care, and was lucky to break even. Later that night, I got into a couple games stocked with fish and just killed. I need to take better advantage of my datamining, rely more on my fish list, and not force myself to play just because I may not be able to play again for a couple days.

*Apply what you've learned
This is one of those things that has always dogged me, even in grade school. I'm a smart guy, but I apply like half of what I learn. The rest of it seems to be a mix of luck and flexibility. I need to get better at that. I'm getting there. Solid session reviews, a fair amount of time reading and studying, and keeping my mind active away from the tables have all done me very well the last few months.

*Respect my money
I spent most of the summer and fall pissed off. In the spring, I finally had the $3,000 roll for 3/6 short. Then, I hit a nasty 25,000 hand breakeven run. Shit happens, right? But right as I think I'm pulling out of the run and the donkeys on Party are getting their comuppance, by car goes busto and I pull out half my roll. No comuppance! I play small games most of the year, piss away a little more on an August spending spree, and then completely cash out at the end of September. I checked my stats for the summer, and even after the withdrawl, I did ok moneywise, but it was less than I would have earned in the 3/6, and because I didn't care about it, I spent it quicker that I would have if it mattered.

No more of that shit.

Anyway, that's the plan. It's been fun wasting a day of work on this stuff.

A hand I played bad

My adventures at $100NL continue. Played about 600 hands last night, finally built up the nerve to three-table, and pulled out a $100 win after dropping two-buyins early (nothing awful, just a mix of card dead, a dark tunnel bluff I shouldn't have tried, and KK lost to AA)

I wanted to look closely at a hand I thought I'd played well at first.

I'd been up and down small amounts at this table. But nothing exciting either way. My image was probably tight, maybe a little weak as I was folding a ton of missed hands postflop. Guy was running around 24/9 over 200 hands. Seemed to play predictably.

Full Tilt p0ker
$0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em Ring Game
6 Players
http://www.legopoker.com/hh

BTN: $165.55
Hero (SB): $138
BB: $129.65
UTG: $153.55
MP: $94.75
CO: $99

CO posts 1
Preflop: Jd Jc ($2.5, 6 players)
UTG folds, MP raises to $5, CO folds, BTN folds, Hero calls $4.50, BB calls $4

The $5 raise was kind of weird. Standard raise in this game is generally $3.50-$4.5, and I hadn't seen him make this kind of bet before. It seemed kind of weak, but it also slowed me down from repopping to $14ish, so I guess it worked. I think that's my first mistake. I can't let BB in here, but I do.

Flop: 2c 6d 2h ($16, 3 players)
Hero bets $12, BB folds, MP calls $12

At least I sensibly led out the flop, right? But wait, what's my plan if he raises? I don't have one. I can't fold here, so I suppose I'm getting ready to get it in, but I'm not sure I should want that. In hindsight, maybe leading isn't as good as check/call or check/raise.

Turn: 2c 6d 2h [5c] ($40, 2 players)
Hero bets $20, MP calls $20

Likewise, I don't understand my turn bet very much, but it's not awful. I think looking at it now, I'd prefer $30. He might be trapping with aces, but I think QQ and often KK are raising me on the flop. My reading here is bad. This guy is predictable and didn't raise a flop that looks good to most overpairs. He's never calling the turn with overs though, so I should be pushing harder here to get value from 77-TT.

River: 2c 6d 2h 5c [4c] ($80, 2 players) I check, he checks.

For a minute I thought AK made a wheel, but then saw it didn't. He's still got $55 behind at this point and I'm worried that I may lose some of his weak pairs. Since my turn bet may have looked weak, I checked, hoping he'd bet at least 99 or TT. I should have realized that he would be clinging tightly to his last few chips though, and he checks.

If I'd bet the turn stronger, the pot would now be $100 and he'd have only $45 behind. He can't fold anything at this point and I can stack him.

Result: He shows 99, I win.

A $40 win on my last orbit isn't a bad result. Really, this pot took my session from small win to reasonable win. If I drop it, I book about a $20 win.

Still, I need to be thinking these things through better at the table. There's tons of information out there that I'm not processing, and I need to get better at it if I'm going to keep winning at this level.

Still, my first 1,000 hands I'm 21/16/4, with only 48% won at showdown. I've run cold with aces (only caught them twice and won $4 total with them) and am breaking even with kings (ran them into aces all in preflop once for 50bb). I feel like the cards haven't broken even, but still I'm at 18.5ptbb/100.

There are guys who are way more willing to pay off in marginal spots if I let them (checking ace flops a high % of the time really mindfucks these types, especially since they don't realize that their cold-calling ranges are obvious). There are also some tight spots where people are willing to make big or strange bluffs, and that's going to need sorting out.

I really think big things are possible though. How big?

And after only winning a buy-in last night, I finally got back over the $2,000 mark online. I've got most of my rakeback in a savings account, so this is just winnings. I had no money online when I went to AC in october. Sometime in mid-October I put $500 back on, and so far, even running just mediocre, I've tripled it over about 32,000 hands.

Good times.

I can still run (most of) two miles

It was about 35 degrees out, a nice 15 mph wind with a light misting rain when I stepped out my door last night. Perfect day to get back to running, huh?

It was actually pretty nice though. My watch died in the three months since I ran, so I just headed out, figuring for the first week or two I would run at whatever pace felt good and just keep things laid back. I'm not training after all, this is just for me.

I had one stoplight break, but otherwise ran the entire mile from Columbia up to Howard. I took two short walks on the second mile (which was dead into the wind as well. Is nice.) and probably did the whole thing in around 25 minutes. Not a bad start.

The aftermath isn't so bad either. My legs are definitely feeling it this morning and my lungs were about gassed, but I already have a much better base than I did when I started last May, and I went from doing a mile in one-minute on/one-minute off increments to running an entire half marathon in Just four months, who knows what I'll be able to do by the summer. For now, I'd just like to build up to ten miles a week, three days a week and then do a little training for the Shamrock Shuffle 8K this spring.

This blogging by email stuff is pretty kickass, btw. Go new blogger!

 

 

Playing the flop at $100NL

Poker has been a little slow the last week. Only gotten in about 400 hands online, but they've all been at $100NL. So far, I've been card dead, running around 16/10/4, and only two-tabling while I adjust, but I'm still up about 3 buyins, so no complaints. Game selection has been a chore at FT though. Lots of nitty tags with stats between 17/12 and 24/18. There are still a decent number of fish, but where a $50NL table may have had two suckers a couple decent players and one guy who knew what he was doing, there may only be one good fish and two guys who know what they're doing. So as usual, edges are getting thinner.

 

I've been mining pretty heavily at FT for the last couple weeks, and the game doesn't look that much tougher from a 10,000-foot perspective. $50Nl population was 31.5/10. The $100 population runs at 30/11 with about 90,000 hands.

 

What really sucks is that pre-Frist, I had about 90,000 hands at $50NL at Stars and the population ran at 38/9. It's just sick what's happened to games. I can't imagine what $400NL or $600NL looks like. I don't even want to imagine what they'll look like if the regulations cut off payment processors.

 

Anyway, I've been through the process before in limit and it's always the same story. More people who know what they're doing, fewer fish, more aggression and more tough decisions.

 

One thing that gives me hope is the relative poorness of the TAGs at this level. C-betting has become a real focus of mine, I've read a bunch of chipp's stuff at +1 and MOP has some great insight into balancing and bet sizing. I've also seen how certain limit concepts, like semibluffing more OOP apply (or get distorted by big betting). So when I saw a thread on 2+2 (I'll add a link later maybe) on c-betting OOP as spew, I made one of my rare posts. Just something simple--it's generally better to c-bet more OOP, same as it's better to semibluff OOP. Several of the regulars absolutely howled about that.

 

You have more fold equity in position, not out of position! (Something that's retarded, on its face given what your distributions will look like, and also assumes a c-bet is a bluff, which is dangerous I think.)

 

If you bet more OOP position you'll get floated! (As opposed to check/folding I guess, no one ever really got into what to do having checked.) Considering the success I've had recently checking top pair on drier boards, and the ways I've been able to balance that with delayed cbets, that advice is just nuts imo.

 

Then there were the guys saying, well no, you can't c-bet 100%. Maybe just 80%. Sigh.

 

Two hands:

 

I raise AQo to $3.5 in the CO. A taggy guy with 25/14/3.5 stats calls in the BB. Flop comes AK4r. BB checks. I see no purpose in betting here. I checked behind and then ended up making two 3/4-pot bets on the turn (2) and river (8), only to get looked up by a pair of nines. Heroic calldown sir.

 

I raise utg+1 to $3.5 with 33. Button (45/3/.8) and BB (30/10/1.4) call. Flop comes AJ2, two hearts. BB checks, I check, utg+1 checks behind. Turn is a nine, not a heart. BB checks. I bet $9, they both fold.

 

Anyway, I'm rambling, but I guess the point is that playing the flop well is turning into a strength and especially an area where I've got an edge I can positively exploit against nearly anyone at that level. I'm working on my play OOP, and MOP is going to pay for itself in that category in no time. Especially because most of the TAGs I've found so far are c-betting 75-90% of the time, and banging away like that is just begging to be attacked.

 

At least, I hope so. I always felt I played well against tags in limit. You're never going to make loads of money off of them, but in small games, even the best players have bunches of leaks. Maybe I'm just now settling into a NL strategy that's complete enough to play against good players.

 

Game selection still sucks though. I may have to give Absolute or Stars a try. Rakeback/datamining is so nice that switching to Stars is probably -EV. I have a feeling once the Absolute/UB software merger is complete, that site is going to get a ton of my play. Especially if Absolute keeps in place their policy that bonus doesn't count against MGR.

 

Sorry for the rant, but their cracking down on Internet at work, so I'll probably spend some of my free time at work writing blog posts, just to keep all four brain cells firing.

 

Can't run, so I run bad

I was pretty sick all last week with a chest cold that I barely shook by Saturday. That kept me from getting back to running in the first of the year. Naturally I decided to recuperate by spending Saturday in the Majestic Star II cardroom.

I think the problem was I wasn't in the mood to be patient. After walking out +$330 last time, I just wanted to sit at the table and have people ship me their chips. Unfortunately, they weren't as accomodating.

Sat in the $100 game for an hour and a half and mainly folded. Called one raise in position with 6h5h behind an utg raiser ($10) and three callers. Blinds call. SB pushes all in for $10 on the flop of 973r w/ one heart. Folds to an old black guy I have a nice read on and he makes a weird bet to $55. He looks like he hates what he's just done, so I jam for $65 more, hoping he folds a seven and I have pair outs vs. SB. He instacalls with A6, board bricks, and he looks at me funny when I say ace-high is good. I steal two pots and leave at the next time, -$95.

On to the Omaha game with Eric. I made a nice play early when I took down a $120 pot with a flush vs. a guy with trip kings. He though he had a boat on a board of KK77J. Unfortuntely, it was the high water mark for the day. I make a bad fold on the river in a kill pot, then proceed to lose with four sets and two straights over the next three hours. Five times I had the nuts one-way (at least) on the turn, and five times I got quartered or nothing. Fun game. -$105.

Eric and I did have some fun talking cards, and talking with some of the old guys in the game. It was a relaxing game compared to NL, but just brutal. On the other hand, I took about as many bad beats as I possibly could and was stuck less than 20 big blinds, so the game can't be all bad. I'll definitely be back.
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The trip did give me a chance to put some of this Christmas present into practice.

The book seemed kind of simple and obvious as I read it. Basically, Navarro outlines a series of tells coming from our limbic system (the same place the flight-or-fight response comes from). Unlike Caro, he doesn't spend much time worrying whether someone is an actor or not, and most of the book seems to overthrow the Weak is strong/strong is weak conventions. Navarro's pretty confident that high-roller or fish, the tells are legit, especially if they show up in clusters (a concept he does share with Caro). The most interesting ones I noticed had to do with physical proximity to cards or the pot. The closer to the table people got, the better their hand. The further away, the worst the cards.

For example, in the hand I played with 65, the old guy reached far into the table trying to look strong (strong=weak), but then sat back in his chair, looked down and to the right, pursed his lips and crossed his legs. He was physically trying to get away from the hand, even if he was too much of a calling station to do it.

I saw another one where a gutshot hit on the river, and a guy overbet the pot, then stood up and was physically leaning over the table while a guy was thinking about a call. In Caro's world, I might see that as strong=weak, but Navarro would probably lean toward calling it strong, and it turned out to be the nuts.

I'm still not much for soul reading, but even a tell can factor into a range. Worth a read if you're playing live much.