April, updated

Big pots baby

Absolute Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.50/$1
3 players

Stack sizes:
Button: $71.65
cbal84: $235.20
BB: $228.35

Pre-flop: (3 players) cbal84 is SB with qc qs
Button folds, cbal84 raises to $4, BB raises to $8, cbal84 raises to $24, BB calls.

Flop: 5c :10d 4c ($48, 2 players)
cbal84 bets $35, BB calls.

Turn: 2s ($118, 2 players)
cbal84 bets $80, BB calls.

River: 7c ($278, 2 players)
cbal84 bets $90, BB calls all-in $89.35.
Uncalled bets: $0.65 returned to cbal84.

Results:
Final pot: $456.7

Played 350 hands tonight, won $325.

Month total online cash: $1247.86

He called with AKo btw.

Ship it.

April results, May goals

Not sure if I'll get another session in, so I'm going to do a tentative monthly review post now.

I skipped last month, but overall, including $220 in rakeback, I managed to make a whole $300 in the month. It was pretty ugly, but it led me to a few leaks, which I think I plugged this month.

Overall, I spend the entire month in the $200NL game at absolute (.5/1 blinds). I only got in just under 6000 hands. I spent part or all of three weekends playing live, and also spent some time playing turbo sngs.

Anyway, here are the summaries.

Online cash: $923.41 (8.1ptbb/100)
Turbo sngs: $92
Live play: $574

Add in about $130 in rakeback too. So ship $1590 this month.

Online



Live



Beat: I had to pay $620 in overdue parking tickets yesterday or face a booting.

I have to admit, I've run really hot the last week-and-a-half, but I think a good chunk of that is due to plugging up some leaks. Play-wise, I've been c-betting more, getting a lot more aggressive early in a hand. I've found myself in a lot better control of hands and I've been able to make clearer reads later in the hand. I've also gotten some big action when I've flopped big. Occasionally, it's gotten out of hand, but I think the dips you see in the graph actually come from more passive spots, where I haven't really defined my ops range, and then I'll try to make a play or call lighter than I might usually.

Mentally though, I've gotten patient. This is really the biggest step. A couple weeks ago, I was reviewing a monday session. I'd won about $150, but felt I should have gotten more. I realized I'd only won 10 pots, and only one bigger than $20 (it was $200). But I'd lost three $30+ pots. There are a few big pots that define session. Lots of other things go into those pots, including building an image, picking up some small pots. But since I've gone back to a tag-ish 22/16 game, I'm generally showing up in pots with solid hands, so waiting around for big pots makes a lot more sense.

Last night was a great example. I headed down to MJII after work around 6:30. By 7, I was stuck nearly $200. I made two completely unnecessary plays and should have only been down about $50. So I take a breath and tell myself to just wait for the game to come to me.

I folded for another hour or so, picking up a few pots, seeing one showdown when I faded a shortstack's flush draw all in on the flop, and by 8:30 I've got my $200 back and am sitting with $300 in front. Then I pick up aces, double through a guy who limp-called and check/called home with tens on a nine high board. Boom. $600. Picked up a few more pots over the next two hours, but paid off quads once, and walk out with a $420 win.

As soon as I quit pushing and just waited for the game to come to me, I had easy choices, clear plays, and got a little lucky.

Easy game. Right? :p

I'm probably not going to get a ton of hands in again in May. I'm going to California for a wedding next weekend, then Bronwyn and I start kayaking the weekend after, but I'm hoping to get 10,000 in, stay patient and see a much steadier graph for next month.

And win at least enough to pay for my ticket to Vegas for June.

Thin river spots, pt 2

Hand one

So, as I suspected the first hand is really really thin. If we think he bets any two

pair, T9+, we actually have 44% equity. But if we take away T9 and A4 from his river

betting range, and leave A6 in there, it's a clear fold, since we have only 28%

equity.

Here's the 28% range:

99, 44, AsTs, As9s, Ah6h, As6s, KdQd, KdJd, KdTd, Kd8d, Kd7d, Kd6d, QdJd, QdTd, Qd8d,

Qd7d, JdTd, Jd8d, Td7d, 8d7d, AcTs, AhTc, AhTd, AhTs, AsTc, AsTd, A9o, A6o

Here's the 44% range:

99, 44, AsTs, As9s, As4s, KdQd, KdJd, KdTd, Kd8d, QdJd, QdTd, Qd8d, JdTd, Jd8d, Th9h, Td8d, Td7d, 8d7d, AhTc, AhTd, AhTs, AsTc, AsTd, Ah4c, Ah4d, Ah4s, As4c, As4d, Tc9h, Tc9s, Td9c, Td9h, Td9s, Th9c, Th9s

So the question is whether he's betting closer to the 28% or the 44%.

I think against an unknown, you have to assume they're not going to valuebet thin, they're not going to want to get checkraised. So dropping T9 and A4 leaves us at ~34%. So we have to believe he's betting A6 here to call him. Really really close.

A6 is probably more optimistic on the river, so it may get excited and bet, thinking it just caught up to A8 or 7. Still not sure what I think about that, so I actually think it probably doesn't matter much. With any kind of passive read though, I think this is a close fold. Against an aggressive value bettor or bluffer, we have to call.

What I do think is interesting is how the 9d blocks a lot of hands he could have here. Since he can't have a whole slew of 98d, 97, Q9 type hands, it actually adds a bit of value to our hand. If the 2d is on the board instead, and I have A6 on a board of AT642, the most equity I can have is 41%, because he's likely never holding T6, rarely 64 and has a slew of 9x combos that make flushes. Interesting tidbit for board texture.

Hand two
This amazed me a little.

Turns out, given the price he's laying, I have to call this if he can reasonably have KQ/66, and it's not really close.

Against this range:

KK, QQ, 66, AcKc, AdKd, AsKs, AcQc, AdQd, AsQs, AhJh, AhTh, Ah9h, Ah8h, Ah7h, Ah6h, KcQc, KdQd, KsQs, JhTh, Jh9h, Th9h, Th8h, 9h8h, AhKc, AhKd, AdQc, AhQc, AhQd, AhQs, KcQd, KcQs, KdQc, KdQs, KsQc, KsQd

77 has 50% equity.

I'm a little floored by that.

Again, there's a decent chunk of suited connectors he's blocked from having, but even if I take out the non-nutflush AQo and AKo combos, and have him only betting a nut flush, two-pair or a set of kings, queens or sixes, we have 36% equity at showdown.

Here's that range:
KK-QQ, 66, AhJh, AhTh, Ah9h, Ah8h, Ah7h, Ah6h, KcQc, KdQd, KsQs, JhTh, Jh9h, Th9h, Th8h, 9h8h, AhKc, AhKd, AhKs, AhQc, AhQd, AhQs, KcQd, KcQs, KdQc, KdQs, KsQc, KsQd

If you add in him having Ah8x+ and Axh, then our equity drops to 25%
KK-QQ, 66, AhJh, AhTh, Ah9h, Ah8h, Ah7h, Ah6h, Ah5h, Ah4h, Ah3h, Ah2h, KcQc, KdQd, KsQs, JhTh, Jh9h, Th9h, Th8h, 9h8h, 9h5h, AhKc, AhKd, AhKs, AhQc, AhQd, AhQs, AhJc, AhJd, AhJs, AhTc, AhTd, AhTs, Ah9c, Ah9d, Ah9s, Ah8c, Ah8d, Ah8s, KcQd, KcQs, KdQc, KdQs, KsQc, KsQd

So it's a question again of just how low his range goes. I think A9o and A7s are reasonable floors, which leaves us with 28% equity vs. a very tight river betting range or two-pair+

Considering he priced us in on the turn, we have to call the river getting 4:1, since with have 28% equity. Honestly, this shocks me a bit. But notice that if he bets 25 into 40 on the river, we have a fold.

Hand three
At least I'm not insane here. I have about 20% equity to snap off a bluff, and I'm just not finding any combos that give me more than that. Easy fold here.

I'm really finding a lot of value lately in running these drills after sessions. I've always done it for close spots, but the more I dig into it, the more I'm applying it at the table. I'm sure this is mind-numbing for anyone actually reading, but you have only yourself to blame :)

Three thin river spots

Three hands.

$100NL First hand at the table, I have A9o in the BB. Three limps, I check, flop is A94, who diamonds, I have none. I bet $2, called in two spots. Turn is a T, I bet $6.50, one fold, button calls. River's a 6d. I check and call a $12 bet.

$200NL. I raise $4 utg+1 w/ 77, get called by the SB, who is a bit of a station with $130 behind. Flop is Q76 all hearts. I bet $8, get called. Turn is Kh, SB bets $5 I just call. River is a brick, SB bets $10, I call.

$100NL I raise $2 w/ ATc utg, get called only by sb, a weird player who runs at 45/1/.3 and makes plays that I can only describe as spazzy--she recently open-shoved $140 into a $2 pot with TT as an overpair. Flop is 984r, one club, she checks, I bet $3, she calls. Turn is a 5c. Check, check. River is a red ace, check, I bet $7, she checkraises another $7, I call.

In the first hand, I probably need to bet/fold river to protect value, but having checked, I'm ok with folding.

Second hand, I think the river is a clear fold. This is just not two-pair.

Third hand, my first river bet is pretty bad. She calls with almost nothing I beat. Second call is just retarded.

I had a nice day yesterday. Played about 600 hands, and ended up $65. But the three hands above are the ones I spent most of the time on when I reviewed. I remembered each as tough spots in the session and really think in each case, I'm not giving up a ton of money by folding. And there is collectively $82 at stake if I win the pots and $39 lost if I make the wrong call. (I realize we're actually talking about fractions of that amount, but let's be literal for the sake of discussion).

So how do we think about these spots?

The pot in hand 1 is $32 when he bets, so effectively 3:1 on a call.

The pot in hand 2 is $40, so 4:1 to call.

The pot in hand 3 is $10 on the river, and I'm getting $24:$7 to call a checkraise, so ~3.5:1

In hand one, I beat T9. I really don't imagine an unknown not raising A4 on that flop.

Hand two I only beat KQ or the worst played set of sixes in history.

Hand three, I beat a busted flush draw or maybe 9x turned into a bluff.

So, that means I need 33% equity in hand one, 25% in hand two and 28% in hand three.

I'll update it tomorrow with what those ranges would look like. I have actual work to do now. But if anyone actually reads this and wants to take a guess, feel free. I think it's a good exercise and one I know I need to add to my postgame more often.